Bitcoin may only have a few months of price expansion left in the cycle, especially if it follows the same historical pattern from 2020, a crypto analyst warns.
“We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” crypto analyst Rekt Capital said in a video on Thursday, basing his forecast on how the Bitcoin (BTC) rally played out five years ago.
Bitcoin bull market may fade out after October
Rekt explained that if the Bitcoin cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market will likely peak in October, which is 550 days after the Bitcoin halving in April 2024.
“That’s already two to three months potentially that we have left in this bull market,” Rekt said.
Rekt acknowledged that many market participants have ignored the halving cycle and predict a possible “cycle extension” lasting until 2026.
“Many people are happy to throw away time-tested principles out the window, whereas it’s really important to rely on these sorts of metrics because they are not going to sway you as much as throwing everything out the window will.”
He said they are sidelining the halving cycle metric to “chase a new narrative,” such as Bitcoin’s correlation with the global M2 Money Supply.
Just this past Wednesday, crypto analyst Crypto Auris said, “As global money supply expands, Bitcoin’s next target sits around ~$170K, following the flow.”
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $109,155, just 2.5% below its $111,970 all-time high, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Rekt Capital says chasing new Bitcoin metrics is “an emotional thing”
Rekt said that looking at new metrics is an impulsive reaction. “It’s an emotional thing as well, and you don’t want emotional things clouding your judgement,” he said.
However, several crypto analysts believe the typical Bitcoin halving cycle is less reliable now, given the surge in institutional adoption of Bitcoin, which was not present in previous cycles.
Related: Bitcoin price holds range but needs fresh demand to break higher
On Thursday, Standard Chartered digital asset research head Geoff Kendrick said, “Thanks to increased investor flows, we believe BTC has moved beyond the previous dynamic whereby prices fell 18 months after a ‘halving’ cycle.”
In May, Standard Chartered predicted Bitcoin would reach $200,000 by the end of the year, a forecast also made by wealth management firm Bernstein. Both are below BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes’ more bullish $250,000 year-end target.
Magazine: Arthur Hayes doesn’t care when his Bitcoin predictions are totally wrong
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
