Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin may reach a cycle top of $150,000 by October, based on halving-cycle fractals.
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New BTC investor activity is rising, signaling more room for upside.
Bitcoin (BTC) may be entering the final leg of its current bull market cycle, with historical halving-based fractals suggesting that the next major market top could arrive by October, just three months away.
Bitcoin may peak around $150,000 by October
A recurring “tick-tock” fractal tracked by analyst CryptoBullet shows that Bitcoin tends to peak approximately 518 to 546 days after each halving event. The most recent halving occurred on April 15, 2024.
As of late July, Bitcoin has reached a point where there are only 77 days left before the BTC price establishes a post-halving bull market peak, if history repeats.
CryptoBullet said:
“BTC Bull Cycle: only 3 months left. Tick tock, tick tock”
That places the next potential top by October. Many analysts anticipate BTC’s price to reach between $130,000 and $150,000 by the year’s end, with some even predicting a bull run toward $200,000.
Bitcoin long-term holders are not capitulating yet
Onchain data further supports a Bitcoin price rally in the coming months.
A key metric comparing the activity of new versus old investors, published by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., shows that young coins, representing recent buyers, now account for 30% of overall market activity.
The current 30% level is well below the overheated peaks of 64% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2024.
Both those spikes coincided with local price tops, suggesting that when new investor activity dominates the market, it often marks a period of euphoria and profit-taking.
In contrast, today’s reading still allows room for further upside before such conditions set in.
The uptrend signals growing demand from new entrants. Meanwhile, long-term holders have not yet shown signs of capitulation.
“Old holders are still selling moderately: a coefficient of 0.3 means that the supply of three-year-old coins is still absorbing young demand without sharp fluctuations,” Adler Jr. writes, adding:
“From the perspective of old wallet capitulation risk, the market looks balanced.”
This ongoing equilibrium is partly due to strong absorption from institutions. Corporations and ETFs continue to accumulate Bitcoin at a steady pace, helping offset intermittent sell-side pressure.
Related: Even retail demand is now outpacing Bitcoin supply: Bitfinex
As a result, sufficient supply absorption by these large players has been able to contain short-term selling pressures, keeping the market structurally healthy as it pushes deeper into the late stages of the bull cycle.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
