The crypto industry witnessed a strong first half of 2025, with Bitcoin leading the charge thanks to improving regulatory conditions, growing ETF participation, and aggressive accumulation by large institutions.
Sponsored by KCEX exchange, the latest State of Crypto Q2 2025 report by 99Bitcoins shows that the quarter-to-date gains of most U.S. indices remained below 15%, with only the S&P 500 IT index rising 18.4%.
In comparison, the crypto market outperformed them all, delivering impressive returns of 21.72%.
This was also one of the best quarters for the stablecoin market. Total stablecoin transactions crossed the $35T mark, with the number of active unique addresses reaching 265M.
$USDT commanded a 68.77% share of all stablecoin transactions, while Circle’s $USDC followed with 30.83%.
Circle’s IPO was a massive hit, too, with its stock price soaring 168% on just the first day of trading. This shows that investors have a huge appetite for exposure to the stablecoin sector, even if through indirect routes.
Read on as we unpack more crypto market trends, analyze Bitcoin’s (and Ethereum’s) performance over the last four months, and explore what might lie ahead for the rest of 2025.
Bitcoin in the First Half of 2025
Bitcoin was a tale of two quarters during the first half of 2025. The first quarter saw a sharp 30% correction in the ‘digital gold,’ with prices falling to a low of $74.5K amid macroeconomic pressures such as the global trade war.
The second quarter, however, marked a string reversal, with $BTC surpassing its previous all-time high of $109K. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading just shy of $120K, having formed a fresh lifetime high of $118,845.
In contrast to previous bull runs, retail interest remained relatively muted in Q2. Instead, institutional buying stepped in.
As of May 27, publicly traded companies had borrowed around $2.1B to acquire Bitcoin, and corporations now hold over 5% of the total Bitcoin supply.
Strong ETF Inflows
Bitcoin ETF activity also saw a significant rise. Total Assets Under Management (AUM) now represent around 6.35% of Bitcoin’s market cap.
Chris Wright, Global Head of Marketing at 21Shares, projects a very chunky 50% increase in inflows in 2025 compared to last year, reaching approximately $55B.
If this trend continues, total AUM could hit $200B by the end of the year, up from current levels of $110B.
Interestingly, exchange inflow volumes declined during the second quarter, indicating that Bitcoin investors are opting to HODL.
The total supply held by long-term investors rose from 14.05M to over 14.65M, signaling conviction-driven accumulation.
Even in the derivatives market, long positions significantly outnumbered shorts. Plus, the number of crypto addresses holding over 1M Bitcoin increased to 160,822 in June, up from 124,663 in mid-March.
All signs point in one direction – the market overwhelmingly believes Bitcoin’s upward trajectory will continue in the foreseeable future.
Way Ahead for Bitcoin
99Bitcoins had predicted a 70% chance of a bullish scenario playing out for Bitcoin in the coming months. And so far, that forecast has proven accurate.
The report correctly noted that once $BTC broke past the $103K level, it would likely surge towards its first major target of $120K, a key psychological resistance.
According to 99Bitcoins, if ETF tailwinds and increasing regulatory clarity persist, $BTC could be propelled even further, with $135K as the next upside target.
Daniel Polotsky, Co-Founder of CoinFlip, strongly believes that Bitcoin will end well above $100K by year-end.
However, given escalating global tensions and the renewed threat of a tariff war, investors should still be mindful of a possible bearish turn.
If the asset fails to hold above the $120K mark and drops back below $103K, it could revisit $98K, and possibly even $89K, for a fresh liquidity sweep.
Ethereum Stats from Q2
Ethereum moved in correlation with Bitcoin during the second quarter, with the coefficient ranging between 0.48 to 0.98. This means $ETH largely mirrored $BTC’s movements during this period.
Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum also dropped nearly 60% from its all-time high during the first quarter before bouncing back sharply.
Currently trading at just shy of $3K, $ETH remains about 36% below its previous all-time high, which could soon be taken out if the bullish momentum continues.
The MVRV ratio for $ETH followed a volatile path over this time. At the start of the year, it stood at around 1.5, indicating Ethereum was trading well above its average acquisition price and was considered overvalued.
As expected, profit-booking kicked in, dragging the MVRV ratio below 1.0 in March, suggesting that most $ETH holders were in loss territory.
During the Q2 recovery, the MVRV bounced back to 1.2, indicating nominal profits for the average holder.
On the charts, the $2.8K mark has acted as a strong resistance for Ethereum since the first week of May. It finally managed to close above this level yesterday (July 10) and is now consolidating in that zone.
If Ethereum holds this level, it could continue its upward climb toward $3.4K.
However, if it falls back in the $2.4K-$2.8K range, it may trade sideways for most of the next quarter before making a decisive directional move.
Some Other Crypto Stats from Q2 2025
Let’s now look at some other key crypto stats outlined in the report:
- Crypto venture capital funding in the first quarter of 2025 reached nearly 60% of all VC investments made in 2024, raising around $4.8B. This fresh capital is expected to fuel innovation, support early-stage startups, and attract top-tier talent.
- Crypto-related hiring surged by 753%, with the majority of new roles in marketing and development, highlighting strong overall growth potential within the space.
- The best meme coins also performed notably well in the second quarter, with over 5.9M tokens created so far this year. Like Bitcoin and Ethereum the meme, the meme coin market saw a dip during Q1 before rebounding in Q2.
- Coins like $PEPE led the charge, skyrocketing by an astounding 89.93M%. In contrast, more established tokens like $SHIB and $DOGE were absent from the top trending cryptos list.
Wrapping Up
After succumbing to macroeconomic pressures in Q1, the crypto market found its footing again in the second quarter of 2025.
With Bitcoin now trading at all-time highs, the 99Bitcoins Q2 State of Crypto Market Report has reinforced market confidence with its ambitious $135K year-end target.
From rising institutional inflows and surging long-term holder conviction to the resurgence of Ethereum and a record-breaking meme coin rally, the data points to a maturing market with renewed momentum and growing participation.
For investors looking to ride the wave, now might be the best time to explore the best cryptos to invest in.
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