Platinum and palladium are both basking in gold’s glow, however their performance is tempered by each metal’s unique market dynamics.
Of the two, platinum has been the biggest winner in 2025. The price of the precious metal climbed by 90 percent to its year-to-date high of US$1,725 per ounce it reached briefly on October 16. Although the market has since experienced a pull back below the US$1,600 level, platinum prices remain at 12-year highs.
As for palladium, the precious metal rose by nearly 80 percent to reach a peak of US$1,630 on October 16. However, the palladium price has since fallen back to the US$1,430 level.
In its annual Precious Metals Investment Focus report published October 25, Metals Focus showcased key supply and demand trends moving the market and prices for precious metals such as platinum and palladium.
Platinum market reflecting more than gold’s shine
Platinum is no doubt benefitting from strong investor demand for precious metals on stagnation fears in 2025. But the metal’s robust supply and demand fundamentals are also at play, according to Metals Focus analysts.
Above ground inventories of platinum remain tight while future mine production is bogged down in operation challenges. “In Southern Africa, outages and heavy rainfall have disrupted production, while North America is undergoing restructuring,” noted the report.
On the demand side, the platinum demand from the jewelry sector has posted significant gains this year, especially in China. As the price of gold skyrockets, platinum jewelry has become a much more attractive alternative. Investment flows into platinum exchange-trade products in China and the US are another key demand driver for the metal this year.
Platinum and palladium prices
Chart via Metals Focus, Bloomberg
While platinum prices are at levels not seen in 12 years, palladium prices are only experiencing a 2-year high. “Palladium has also benefited at the margin, but remains a laggard, with a more lacklustre fundamental outlook limiting investor enthusiasm,” according to Metals Focus.
2026: Platinum bull and palladium bear
Platinum prices will continue to benefit from the overall upward trend in precious metals prices in the remainder of 2025 and well into 2026. The ongoing supply deficit in the platinum market is also highly price supportive.
Metals Focus is forecasting a third consecutive year of physical deficit for 2025, totaling 415,000 ounces as platinum mine output is expected to decline by 6 percent year-over-year. Demand is projected to fall by 4 percent largely due to lower outputs in the glass and automotive sectors.
Platinum’s supply deficit is expected to continue into 2026 and grow to an estimated 480,000 ounces as mine supply is forecast to fall by 2 percent to a 12 year low (excluding COVID 2020). “With few new projects coming online after years of underinvestment, mine supply is undergoing structural decline,” noted the report’s authors.
This will be happening at the same time that demand is expected to rebound by 1 percent on renewed industrial demand, specifically out of the glass and chemical sector in China. Yet, Metals Focus cautions that demand out the automotive and jewelry sectors are likely to contract.
The trend toward electrification is the auto industry may have slowed, but it’s still expected to erode platinum demand, especially as catalytic converter manufacturers shift back to more cost-effective palladium.
Metals Focus is forecasting a 2026 average platinum price of US$1,670 per ounce, up 34 percent over the previous year.
Platinum and palladium price outlook
Chart via Metals Focus, Bloomberg
Looking over to palladium, Metals Focus has a more bearish view. The firm is projecting palladium prices to average US$1,350 per ounce in Q4 2025, falling to US$1,150 by Q4 2026. Although the palladium market has been in a physical deficit for the past few years, that deficit is expected to shrink from 566,000 ounces in 2024 to 367,000 ounces in 2025 before narrowing even further to 178,000 in 2026.
The same structural issues plaguing platinum are also of course weighing on palladium mine supply, which is forecast to fall by 3 percent in 2026. However, secondary supply is projected to increase by 10 percent as recycling activity recovers. Overall, total palladium supply is expected to grow by 1 percent for the year. At the same time, demand for palladium is set to decline by just over 1 percent in 2026 on a drop from the automotive sector.
Investor takeaway
Both platinum and palladium are considered precious metals based on their rarity and use in jewelry fabrication and physical bullion. As such, they both are known to benefit when investor sentiment for safe-haven gold is high.
However, not all precious metals are precious to investors at the same time. Just ask silver. The industrial uses for these metals is a much bigger driver of demand compared to the investment space. For 2026, it’s platinum that will continue to ride gold’s rally and provide investors with plenty of upside based on its strong fundamentals.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, currently hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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