Leading gold analysis firm Metals Focus published its annual flagship Gold Focus report on Thursday (June 5).
The report outlines the key trends influencing the gold market and price over the past year, noting that the metal experienced a remarkable run in 2024, driven by improving investor sentiment toward the yellow metal.
Throughout the year, the gold price surged at a blistering pace, starting 2024 at around the US$1,980 per ounce mark and reaching a peak of US$2,790 at the end of October. Since then, gold has continued to climb, setting repeated record highs since the start of 2025 — the most recent occurred on May 6, when gold reached US$3,437.
Metals Focus anticipates that the underlying conditions supporting gold’s record run will persist through 2025, with the price expected to reach a yearly average of US$3,210, a record high.
What’s behind the shift in investor sentiment?
Up until the start of 2025, investor sentiment remained low, particularly in western markets where exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw outflows for much of the year. It wasn’t until October, as the price of gold approached the US$2,800 mark, that ETF inflows in the US and Europe began to gain positive momentum.
Significant purchases by central banks in Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe provided essential pricing support for gold behind the price gains in 2024. Overall, central banks added a record 1,086 metric tons throughout the year.
This buying was driven by countries aiming to diversify their monetary holdings away from the US dollar, as gold serves as a non-liability-bearing reserve asset. The shift in monetary policy has gained attention over the past several years, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and growing concerns over US overreach following the country’s actions to cut Russia off from the global banking system and restrict the use of the US dollar.
Investors also noted the persistent tensions between Russia and Ukraine, along with fears that the Israel–Gaza conflict could escalate into a broader regional war, which further influenced sentiment in favour of gold as a haven asset.
Geopolitics, uncertainty provide additional price support in 2025
The underlying global drivers have persisted into early 2025, accompanied by new tailwinds for the gold market.
These include the chaos caused by US trade policy, which has created a rift between the world’s largest economy and key trading partners, notably Canada, Mexico, and China. Tariffs have heightened the expectation of a trade war that could affect supply chains and future trade agreements.
The severity, permanence, and outcomes of these measures have only just begun to be felt in the market. US market data registered a slight uptick in inflation numbers for May, and the US Federal Reserve suggested that uncertainty played a role in its decision to maintain interest rates at its last meeting on May 6-7.
Policies enacted by the Trump administration since the beginning of the year have led to a slowdown in global economic growth and have even raised the spectre of a recession as the tariffs threaten to reverse global central banks’ fight against inflation.
In addition to US foreign policy, its ballooning debt continues to erode confidence in the US dollar as the global reserve currency. The current US debt sits around US$37 trillion. The Trump administration pledged to tackle growing debt by cutting government spending through new initiatives like the Department of Government Efficiency.
However, a new spending bill that would essentially extend Donald Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would reduce federal income by US$4.5 billion, with minimal decrease in spending to offset this loss.
The overall sustainability of the US economy has raised significant concern among investors, particularly as expectations suggest that Trump’s policies will worsen the debt crisis in the US. This has led to considerable instability in US and global equity markets since the start of the year, resulting in increased inflows into gold and gold-backed securities.
Supply and demand outlook
High prices are causing significant shifts in market demand, leading Metals Focus to predict a net decline of 9 percent in 2025, with total tonnage falling to 4,246 metric tons from the 4,669 metric tons recorded in 2024.
Leading the way is jewellery, the largest demand segment, which is projected to decrease by 16 percent in 2025, dropping from 2,011 metric tons in 2024 to 1,696 metric tons, with India and China contributing the most substantial declines.
In India, a shift towards lighter weight and lower karat pieces is expected to accelerate, while in China, high prices, weak consumer sentiment, and a sluggish economy will impact demand there.
In other countries, jewellery demand is likely to be affected by high prices, low consumer confidence, and economic uncertainty.
Gold supply and demand.
Chart via Metals Focus.
Additionally, central banks are expected to slow their pace of buying, with Metals Focus suggesting an 8 percent decline to 1,000 metric tons, down from the record 1,089 metric tons purchased the previous year.
However, these declines will be offset by increases in other sectors.
Net physical demand is predicted to rise by 2 percent to 1,218 metric tons from 1,191 metric tons in 2024 as more investors will be drawn to gold to diversify their portfolios amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical tension.
The expectation is that much of the increase will be driven by Chinese investment, followed by a recovery in European markets. Conversely, the US may experience some decline as investors there seek to take profits while gold continues to trade near record-high prices.
Gold supply is projected to see modest growth in 2025, with Metals Focus forecasting a 1 percent increase to 3,694 metric tons from the 3,661 metric tons recorded in 2024. Higher output is anticipated globally, with the exceptions of Asia, Oceania, and the Commonwealth of Independent States.
A significant contributor is a 19 percent increase in North American output as Artemis Gold’s (TSXV:ARTG,OTCQX:ARGTF) Blackwater mine, B2Gold’s (TSX:BTO,NYSE:BTG) Goose Project, and Calibre Mining’s (TSX:CXB,OTCQB:CXBMF) Valentine mine come online. Similarly, Central and South America are expected to see several new mines begin operations in 2025, resulting in a 23 percent increase in regional output.
The firm expects recycling to remain stable, despite predictions that gold prices will reach record highs for the remainder of 2025.
Metals Focus attributes this stability to weak retail destocking in China, which corresponds with low demand for jewellery. In the West, recycling is anticipated to be affected by near-market stock depletion and increased exchange rates of old for new jewellery in price-sensitive markets.
Furthermore, producer debt obligations must be addressed alongside periods of high capital expenditures for certain producers, which is anticipated to result in heightened hedging activity by year-end.
Investor takeaway
Overall, Metals Focus predicts a strong year for gold prices, driven by a global macro environment characterized by trade wars, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions.
While higher prices may reduce discretionary spending on gold products, investors are turning to the gold market to diversify their portfolios, further contributing to a rise in gold prices in 2024 and 2025.
However, elevated prices will likely benefit producers who have spent recent years finding operational efficiencies and offsetting cost increases from a heightened inflationary environment. This situation has led to higher margins and a healthy balance sheet in 2024, which Metals Focus believes is likely to continue into 2025.
Although exploration activities faced a global downturn in 2024, there were notable exceptions. Metals Focus noted that mining data firm Opaxe recorded a 10 percent decrease in global exploration reports in 2024. However, Canada, Australia, and the US made up 70 percent of the total updates, indicating a preference for politically stable jurisdictions.
Investors in the gold market may benefit from paying attention to these trends, as producers aim to expand mining operations or seek new deposits to replenish depleting resources.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, own shares of Calibre Mining.
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