The platinum price fluctuated in 2024, trading between US$900 and US$1,100 per ounce.
Some of its gains were due to strong demand from the automotive sector, which reached a seven year high during the first quarter. Interest rate cut speculation in May also helped boost precious metals prices.
Platinum reached its year-to-date high of US$1,094 on May 17.
The price of the metal also benefited from a supply shortfall of more than 450,000 ounces for the year.
Platinum demand expected to stay flat
According to the most recent data from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), overall platinum demand is expected to remain relatively flat in 2025, falling 1 percent to 7.86 million ounces.
The automotive sector will remain the largest price driver, but for how much longer remains to be seen.
Both platinum and palladium can be used in catalytic converters, which help eliminate toxic emissions from vehicle tailpipe gases. As their prices fluctuate, platinum and palladium tend to be swapped.
Currently, palladium is trading at a premium to platinum, and its price will likely need to be considerably lower before parts makers start retooling processes to swap between them.
Although light vehicle sales are expected to grow by 1.7 percent in 2025, an increasing number will be electric vehicles (EVs) that don’t require platinum or other platinum-group metals.
S&P Global Mobility projects that the global market share for EVs will rise to 16.7 percent over the next year, a significant increase from 7 percent in 2023. It sees 15.1 million EV units being sold.
Jewelry also provides significant demand for platinum. In 2025, the WPIC forecasts that demand will see a 2 percent rise to 1.98 million ounces, up from 1.95 million ounces the previous year.
Investment demand is also expected to grow in 2025, rising 7 percent from 2024 to 420,000 ounces.
The figures from the WPIC show that demand gains will be offset by a 9 percent decline in industrial demand, which is seen falling to 2.22 million ounces from 2.43 million ounces last year. The use of platinum in the production of glass is forecast to decline the most, 57 percent, to 286,000 ounces from 671,000 ounces in 2024.
Due to its high melting point, platinum is used to line vessels and coating equipment used in the production of glass, particularly glass used for liquid-crystal displays. In 2021, the use of platinum surged as display manufacturers increased furnace capacity and glass fiber production lines.
Small increase anticipated for platinum supply
Platinum supply is forecast to increase marginally by just 0.76 percent in 2025.
Supply is anticipated to come in at 7.32 million ounces, up slightly from the 7.27 million ounces produced in 2024. This sets the market up for a supply shortfall of 539,000 ounces this year.
Refined production is expected to contract by 1 percent, with 5.55 million ounces entering the market compared to 5.63 million ounces last year. South Africa is one location where output has fallen off.
The decline was acknowledged in August, when Paul Dunne, CEO of producer Northam Platinum Holdings (OTC Pink:NPTLF,JSE:NPH), said the “industry had entered into a phase of irreversible decline.” He suggested this was due to a combination of low prices and a challenging demand landscape as EV adoption gains traction.
Secondary supply from all recycling sources is expected to reach its highest level since 2021, rising 12 percent to 1.77 million ounces. Although platinum is predicted to be in a supply deficit for the third year in a row, this setup may not significantly impact prices owing to more than 3.01 million ounces held in aboveground stockpiles.
What is the platinum price outlook for 2025?
In a video outlook, Jeffrey Christian, managing partner at CPM Group, predicts that the platinum price will remain relatively flat in 2025, possibly facing downward pressure in the year ahead.
This would put the price for the precious metal in the US$900 to US$1,000 range.
With the platinum market expected to continue in deficit through 2025, Heraeus Precious Metals believes there will be some price support. However, like CPM, the firm doesn’t see much upside for the metal over the next year.
Heraeus predicts the metal’s price will range from US$850 and US$1,220.
UBS Group (NYSE:UBS) echoed this sentiment with a price target of US$1,100 for the middle of the year.
The Swiss bank believes that real assets will be supported as the US Federal Reserve eases interest rates, though it suggests platinum is likely to lag behind gold until rates support higher industrial activity.
With all of that said, global geopolitical tensions remain high, and with the platinum price predicted to remain tight in 2025, it may not take much to upset that balance. An example of this came this past October, when the threat of further sanctions against Russia caused price rises for both platinum and palladium.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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