Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin hit $122,000 all-time high on July 14, but onchain data shows no signs of overheating, suggesting more growth potential in 2025.
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BTC price resistance at $124,000-$136,000 remains the main barrier for now.
Bitcoin (BTC) analysts say that the BTC market is not overheated despite new all-time highs of around $123,000 earlier this week.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that Bitcoin price action has established a new range in lower timeframes, and market observers have key support levels in their sights.
Bitcoin market not overheated yet
For CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin has not yet reached its peak range.
The analyst shared a chart showing the absence of a peak signal, which typically appears at major market tops.
The Bitcoin peak signal is a metric that indicates that the market is overheated and a corrective phase is becoming likely.
Related: Bitcoin ETF inflows show institutions ‘doubled down’ on BTC at $116K
It appears when “the combined normalized market to realized price index and 30 day/ 365 day value days destroyed ratio score reaches or exceeds 1,” Adler Jr. explained, adding:
“The Peak Signal only appears at major market tops, and it hasn’t shown up this time, suggesting we’re not at a peak yet.”
Similarly, Bitcoin realized Cap-UTXO Age Bands, a metric that shows the distribution of realized cap of a specified age cohort, also suggests that BTC “hasn’t reached an overheated state,” according to CryptoQuant Crypto Dan.
In March 2024 and December 2024, when Bitcoin was at peak highs, the percentage of the realized cap held by the 1-day to 1-week UTXO age group was as high as 14%. This percentage is currently around 5% despite Bitcoin’s recent all-time highs.
In a Wednesday analysis, Crypto Dan wrote:
“Despite the price rising even higher, the fact that overheating has significantly decreased compared to previous short-term peaks suggests that Bitcoin could continue to break all-time highs and rise significantly in the second half of 2025, leaving strong potential for growth.”
Cointelegraph also reported that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains well below historical peak levels, signaling BTC price can climb further.
Onchain data reveals key Bitcoin price levels to watch
Looking at Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) cost basis, CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk outlines key levels that traders should focus on.
This observation comes from Bitcoin’s realized price model. It uses the average purchase prices of STHs, including their standard deviations, to spot important areas where buyers are active and prices tend to move.
On the upside, the first major resistance sits at $124,000, representing the average cost basis of STHs pushed one standard deviation higher.
“Historically, this band often coincides with profit-taking and local tops,” Crazzyblockk explained.
The upper resistance is at $136,000; the average cost basis of investors who have held BTC for less than 30 days is pushed one standard deviation higher. This is “the most aggressive cohort,” the analyst said, adding:
“When BTC pushes into this area, the market is typically in overbought conditions with excessive unrealized profit for new buyers.”
On the downside, traders should keep an eye on $113,000 — matching the 0.5 standard deviation above the STH realized price; $111,000 — the average cost basis of investors who acquired BTC in the past month; and $101,000, the baseline STH realized price.
$101,000 is the “most critical support for Bitcoin’s medium-term bullish structure,” the analyst said.
“Historically, staying above this zone signals strongholder conviction and trend continuation.”
The market value realized value (MVRV) metric, which shows whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued, suggests that BTC price still has more room for further expansion before the extreme level around $124,000, marking a key point of resistance.
On the downside, a key area of interest sits between $113,700 and $115,300, a zone aligned with the 200-day EMA, which offers dynamic support. The next important level below that is $107,500, the +0.5 STD MVRV band.
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin must reclaim the $119,250–$120,700 zone to resume its bullish momentum and aim for new highs above $123,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
