Crypto token unlocks may fall to $3 billion in August, down 52% from the $6.3 billion in value unlocked in July, according to vesting data tracker Tokenomist.
Despite the overall decrease, several high-profile unlocks could still impact prices. The biggest unlocks include Sui (SUI), Fasttoken (FTN), Aptos (APT), Avalanche (AVAX) and Arbitrum (ARB).
Sui will release $167.62 million in vested tokens on Aug. 1, making it the largest scheduled token unlock for the month. This could be impactful, as the token has a high fully diluted valuation. This means it is highly valued, even though Tokenomist data shows that only 34.5% of its supply is unlocked.
This kind of setup often signals elevated risks during unlock events. With many tokens still locked, increasing supply could lead to some sell pressure if early holders offload their holdings.
50% drop in unlock value “significant” but not a “slowdown”
Fasttoken will release $91.6 million in tokens on Aug. 18, making it the second-largest unlock for the month. However, the effects of the FTN unlock may be minimal, as over 94% of its tokens are already in circulation, according to Tokenomist.
Other notable unlocks include Aptos with $51.5 million, Avalanche with $40.35 million and Arbitrum with $39.24 million. Each of these unlocks will happen in the middle part of the month.
Meanwhile, low-float tokens like Starknet and Kaito, unlocking $16 million and $29 million respectively, could see more volatility because they have thinner market depth.
Even though crypto emissions are expected to drop significantly in August, it may not be a signal for a long-term market slowdown.
Vincent Kadar, the CEO of security token platform Polymath, told Cointelegraph that token unlocks often move in cycles that reflect sentiment, risk appetite and liquidity planning shifts.
“A 50% drop is notable, but not necessarily a signal of long-term slowdown,” he told Cointelegraph. “Projects are reacting to changing market trends, new regulations, and the need to prove their usefulness before adding more supply.”
Related: Arbitrum to unlock $2.32B in vested tokens on March 16
Investors take a more nuanced approach to token unlocks
Kadar also told Cointelegraph that they’ve seen a clear change in how institutions and “sophisticated investors” evaluate token unlocks. He said that there used to be “unlock anxiety,” when supply cliffs caused panic and volatility.
Kadar said the conversation had shifted and become more nuanced. “Investors want to know the economics. Are tokens unlocking with real adoption? Is there governance transparency? Are incentives aligned for long-term value?”
He said there’s been less focus on short-term tokenomics and more attention to fundamentals, including governance, utility and alignment with long-term goals.
He also told Cointelegraph that compliance and sustainability have become key factors, especially for projects seeking institutional capital.
“It’s a constructive shift for the industry overall,” Kadar told Cointelegraph. “As blockchain projects grow and connect with public markets, the conversation is changing.”
Magazine: Crypto traders ‘fool themselves’ with price predictions — Peter Brandt
